Viewpoint: The signs of stagflation and overheating are gradually being released. Although the economic recovery is still accelerating, the economic recovery has entered the late stage. As the economic recovery enters the late stage and the liquidity margin tightens, the next substantial tightening will also be It is a trend, which is not good news for the stock market. And after the decline since mid-February, the bull market pattern is also expected to undergo major changes. The bull market is still not over, but it has entered the late stage of the bull market, and the overall opportunity is not obvious. Pay attention to the local sectors and the local bull market. opportunity.
Under the sharp rise yesterday, the market breathed a sigh of relief in the short term. Today, the two cities both opened higher and then oscillated upwards, continuing the rebound trend of yesterday. However, on the disk, market differentiation is still quite serious, the stocks have mixed ups and downs, and the performance of individual stocks is uneven, and the strength of the rebound is gradually weakening. Yesterday’s surge is more news boosted. Today, the market has a return of sentiment, but it is still in an adjustment trend, and we need to wait and see.
It is worth noting that yesterday, leading the index to rise sharply, one is the financial sector, and the other is Kweichow Moutai and other group stocks. But today, the two major directions have ushered in a divergence. Among financial stocks, banks continued to be strong, but other products fell. However, Kweichow Moutai failed to continue yesterday’s rise and opened higher and lowered throughout the day, continuing to drag down the sector and the index. In the process of falling, the market is actually most susceptible to emotional interference in the short term, but under the trend, emotional interference is actually relatively low.
It should also be noted that the market is currently in an adjustment trend. According to the previous surge and the recent adjustment speed, it is obvious that the adjustment is not very sufficient. It is necessary to beware of the possibility of some institutions and the possibility of fleeing again after the short-term respite of funds, especially the group varieties. The possibility of retracement. At present, the rebound since March 9 has continued, indicating that the index adjustment may gradually come to an end, but we must pay attention to the repetition of individual stocks, especially under the weakening of liquidity in the market, individual stocks counter-kill and compensate for the decline. Therefore, bargain-hunting still needs to wait, and perhaps another retracement will be a better time to buy low, but at least for now, we should wait and see.
In general, for the current market, under the support of accelerated economic recovery and relatively stable liquidity, the nature of the market’s improvement has not changed. However, as the economic recovery gradually enters the later stage, the liquidity margin has continued to tighten, and the bull market has also entered. In the later stage, investors with low risk appetite still need to be cautious about overall positions. For investors with appropriate risks, they can also wait patiently for important opportunities in the late bull market. That is to say, the index still has room to continue to rise, but it is likely to be part of the sector and structural market.
Therefore, it is recommended to focus on several directions in the later stage of the bull market: 1. Financial stocks, which focus on tracking banks. In the later stage of the recovery, bank performance improved, asset quality improved, and liquidity tightening led to funds turning to low-valued depressions to hedge, so the relatively low-valued financial sector may attract more institutional funds; 2. Some cyclical stocks, Such as colored etc. Because the economic recovery is not over yet, cyclical stocks still have a chance of relative gains, but it is not appropriate to participate in heavy warehouses at this time, and pay more attention to the promotion of nonferrous and other colleagues with catalytic themes; 3. The core leading products in consumption. The bull market is not over, the valuation will not go to the end, and consumer stocks have relatively high cost performance and strong capital carrying capacity. It is also one of the best choices for passive fund allocation.
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