30 billion “flood peak” coming!

Due to the low cost of original shareholders, many investors are worried about whether stone technology will reduce its holdings after the lifting of the sales restriction. According to the reporter’s statistics, although the stock price of stone technology rose a lot before the lifting of the sales restriction, and the lifting proportion was also high, the number of people who lifted the ban was relatively concentrated, and the major shareholders, directors and supervisors need to announce in advance before reducing their holdings, so the short-term actual impact of the lifting of the ban of stone technology is limited.

 

According to the latest rating, most institutions are also optimistic about the future performance of the company’s stock price. Some institutions even gave a target price of 1641 yuan, which is close to 50% higher than the latest closing price.

30 billion "flood peak" coming!

Stone technology’s market value exceeds 30 billion

 

According to wind data, a total of 42 stocks were lifted this week. According to the latest closing price, the market value of stone technology, Bank of China Securities, 712 and liangpinpu was more than 10 billion yuan, which were 31.722 billion yuan, 22.992 billion yuan, 16.129 billion yuan and 11.894 billion yuan respectively.

 

On February 22, stone technology ushered in the largest scale of lifting the ban since its listing, with 28.5787 million shares lifted, accounting for 42.87% of the company’s total share capital.

 

There are 12 shareholders of restricted shares in this listing, including Shunwei ventures III (Hong Kong) Limited, Tianjin Jinmi investment partnership (limited partnership), Tianjin stone times enterprise management consulting partnership (limited partnership), dingdi, banyan consulting limited and qm27 Limited, Mao Guohua, Wu Zhen, Wuxi Voda venture capital partnership (limited partnership), Zhang Zhichun, Wan Yunpeng, city-scale PTE.LTD The restricted shares will be listed and circulated from February 22, 2021.

 

It is worth noting that at present, the latest share price of stone technology has reached 1109.99 yuan, which is the third highest price of a shares, second only to Guizhou Maotai and aimike, with a total market value of 74 billion yuan and a dynamic P / E ratio of 54 times. At the same time, it is also the first high price of science and technology innovation board. Since its listing, the company’s share price has risen by 311.22%, 283.81% in 2020 and 7.14% in 2021. Compared with the trend in the second half of 2020, the share price of stone technology has been weak since 2021.

 

With the lifting of the ban, many investors are worried about whether the original shareholders with lower cost of holding shares will cash out by reducing their holdings. In general, the original shareholders are less willing to reduce their holdings than the fixed increase shareholders. The original shareholders generally do not reduce their holdings in a big way because of the consideration of controlling right or the optimistic development prospect of the company. The fixed increase shareholders are more concerned about their investment income, and their willingness to reduce their holdings is relatively greater than the original shareholders.

 

It was mentioned in the company’s previous announcement of lifting the ban on the listing of restricted shares that Shunwei ventures III (Hong Kong) In March 2016, limited obtained 500000 shares of the issuer through equity transfer, and promised to lock up for 12 months from the date of listing of the issuer’s shares. In March 2019, limited obtained 5.9255 million shares of the issuer through capital increase, and will not reduce its holding within 3 years from the date of completion of industrial and commercial registration of capital increase and 12 months from the date of listing of the issuer’s shares. Except for Shunwei ventures III (Hong Kong) Limited, other shareholders applying for the listing and circulation of restricted shares promise to lock up for 12 months from the date of listing.

 

With the end of the restriction period, 500000 shares of Shunwei ventures III (Hong Kong) Limited and restricted shares of other shareholders applied for lifting the ban, with a total of 28.5787 million shares lifted. After the lifting of the ban, there are 21.7901 million shares to be lifted, 368800 shares to be lifted on February 21, 2022, 5.9255 million shares to be lifted on March 31, 2022, and 15.4958 million shares to be lifted on March 21, 2023.

 

It is worth mentioning that Tianjin stone times business management consulting partnership (limited partnership), Shunwei ventures III (Hong Kong) Limited, banyan consulting limited, Tianjin Jinmi investment partnership (limited partnership), qm27 Limited, dingdi, etc. promise that if they need to reduce their holdings, if they reduce their holdings by means of centralized competitive trading at the stock exchange, they shall file the reduction plan with the Shanghai Stock Exchange and make an announcement 15 trading days before the first sale, and if they reduce their holdings by other means, they shall make an announcement three trading days in advance.

 

The above shareholders lifted 21.6692 million shares in total, accounting for 32.51% of the total share capital of the company, accounting for 75.82% of the lifted shares. Up to now, the above shareholders have not announced the reduction plan.

 

In addition, the regulation stipulates that if the major shareholders, directors, supervisors and senior executives of listed companies plan to reduce their shares through centralized competitive trading in the stock exchange, they shall report to the stock exchange 15 trading days before the first sale and disclose the reduction plan in advance. Mao Guohua, Wu Zhen and WAN Yunpeng, the company’s directors and senior managers, and Zhang Zhichun, the company’s supervisor, also did not announce the reduction plan.

 

The pressure of short-term reduction of restricted shares may mainly come from Wuxi Voda venture capital partnership and city-scale PTE.LTD . and other shareholders.

 

What is the short-term impact of the stock price of stone technology?

 

Throughout the company’s stock price performance before and after the large-scale lifting of the ban, the impact of lifting the ban on the company is self-evident. In the case of a large number of restricted shares lifting the ban on listing, the circulation market will increase suddenly, and the stock price will also face the test of lifting the ban.

 

For example, after the announcement of lifting the ban on restricted shares issued by Xiangcai on February 1, the company’s share price continued to fall. In just six trading days from February 1 to February 8, the company’s share price fell by 36.79%.

 

On February 1, Xiangcai announced that 106 million restricted shares of the company were listed and circulated on February 8, accounting for 3.97% of the company’s total share capital. From the perspective of the nature of the shares, these shares are all non-public restricted shares issued by Xiangcai to raise matching funds when it acquired Xiangcai securities. The lock-in period is six months. The issuing objects include 13 institutional investors and individual investors, such as Anxin Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Taiping Asset Management Co., Ltd.

 

Affected by the lifting of the ban on shares, it is not only Xiangcai that causes the stock price to drop to the limit. Similarly, on February 1, the stock price of Zhongyuan securities was also directly hit by the limit, and the same day happened to be the day when its 774 million fixed increase restricted shares were lifted.

 

According to the previous announcement of Zhongyuan securities, after six months of fixed-term lock-in, 774 million shares of the company were listed and circulated on February 1, accounting for 16.67% of the total share capital of the company. In July 2020, Zhongyuan securities completed the non-public offering of A-shares, and a total of 18 institutions participated in the subscription, including leading securities companies such as CICC, CITIC construction investment, Guoxin Securities, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, and well-known private equity institutions such as Gaoyi assets.

 

Will the lifting of the ban “Hongfeng” also have an impact on the leading stone technology of the floor sweeping robot? In fact, on the eve of the lifting of the ban, the stock price of stone technology was weak. Since January 26, it reached the highest price of 1262.62 yuan since its listing, and on February 19, it reached the lowest price of 1012 yuan. The stock price of the company has been callback by 19.85%. On the eve of the lifting of a large number of restricted shares, the stock price of stone technology once fell by more than 10% in the trading on February 19, and the closing decline narrowed to 2.38%.

 

Analysts believe that whether the lifting of the ban will have an impact on the stock price mainly depends on the following aspects: the accumulated increase in the early stage is not large, the lifting proportion is not high, and whether the number of lifting the ban is scattered. The lifting of the ban of stone technology basically conforms to the above two characteristics, but the number of people lifting the ban is relatively concentrated, and the impact of short-term stock price is limited.

 

From the perspective of agency rating, most agencies are also optimistic about the future performance of the company’s stock price. Wind statistics show that in recent years, a number of institutions have given buy or overweight ratings to stone technology, with the highest target price of 1641.14 yuan, which is still 48% higher than the latest closing price.

 

In fact, whether shareholders reduce their holdings depends on their own needs, but based on the optimistic situation of the company’s prospects, the probability of large-scale reduction of shareholders is small. According to the 2020 performance express previously released by stone technology, the total operating revenue in 2020 was about 4.530 billion yuan, an increase of 7.74% over the same period of last year; the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 1.37 billion yuan, an increase of 75.19% over the same period of last year.

 

Huatai Securities said that the continuous expansion of overseas self built channels and the rapid growth of private brand sales in domestic and foreign markets are the main reasons for the increase of gross profit rate and net profit rate and high profit growth in 2020. Compared with traditional mainstream peers at home and abroad, the company has strong advantages in algorithm and data accumulation, R & D and design strength, product performance, business model, profitability, industrial ecology, etc. in the long run, it has global leader gene, and the reserve of commercial robots is worth looking forward to.

 

Huatai Securities suggests looking at the long-term value from three dimensions: 1) sweeping robot is a 100 billion level AI + consumer market in smart home ecology, with long track and large space; 2) from laser navigation to AI binocular vision and then to commercial robots, the spirit and ability to continuously explore and create new barriers to technology is a moat with broad stone; 3) China’s huge market and engineers’ dream Li provides fertile ground for the birth of the global service robot leader, and stone technology has this potential.

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