“28 phenomenon” is coming, and the new development fund is showing signs of cooling down

According to wind data, as of February 3, a total of 143 funds have been established since 2021, with an issue size of 533.279 billion yuan. Among them, the issue size of equity funds in January exceeded 450 billion yuan, setting a new record for the issue size of equity funds in a single month. Since February, the new development fund has been quietly showing signs of cooling down. The subscription situation of some funds has not been as expected, and the “February 8th phenomenon” is more obvious.

"28 phenomenon" is coming, and the new development fund is showing signs of cooling down

Market analysts pointed out that it should be a slow and gradual process for investors to enter the market through the fund and the new development fund to inject incremental funds into the market. The new development fund should maintain an appropriate pace, which will play a “small flow” effect on medium and long-term investment and industry development.

 

Equity fund is popular

 

According to wind data, 122 funds were established in January alone, with an issuance scale of 490.140 billion yuan, the second highest monthly issuance scale in history after July 2020. Among the 122 funds established in January, 105 equity funds (32 equity funds and 73 hybrid funds) were issued with an issue size of 450.276 billion yuan, which is the highest monthly issue size of equity funds.

 

From a single fund point of view, boosted by the spring market, among the newly established funds in January, there were 12 funds with the issuing scale of more than 10 billion yuan. Among them, GF balanced optimization a, e-fonda competitive advantage enterprise a, Boshi Huixing return one-year holding and Yinhua Xinjia two-year holding have issued more than 13 billion yuan.

 

In February, the momentum of the new development fund is still strong. On February 1 and 2, the capital continued to pursue southern xingrun value, holding hybrid funds, harvest quality return hybrid funds and other popular products for one year. According to wind data, since February 3, there are still 55 funds on the waiting list, with the starting date of raising on March 22 and the closing date of raising on May 4. Among the 55 pending funds mentioned above, 27 have announced the upper limit of fund raising, 15 have set the upper limit of fund raising at more than 8 billion yuan, and three of them (e-fonda Yuehong held in one year, Guofu Xinghai return, e-fonda foresight growth) have set the upper limit of fund raising at more than 10 billion yuan.

 

Huicheng Fund said that since 2020, the professionalism of public funds as institutional investors has been recognized by all parties. In the medium and long term, equity funds have broad prospects for development. With the gradual consolidation of China’s capital market infrastructure and system, equity market investment will usher in greater development space in the future.

 

Deppon fund also believes that in the foreseeable future, the incremental funds led by residents’ financial management are expected to enter the market in large quantities, which will become the main investment force, and the issuance scale of public funds will continue to be at a high level.

 

Signs of cooling

 

Since February, the new development fund has maintained a hot situation, but the signs of cooling have been quietly revealed. Wind data shows that the number of new funds this week (February 1-5) is 30, of which 15 are concentrated on this Monday (February 1). However, from the situation of that day, in addition to the few popular products mentioned above, most of the other products are expected to be high (such as Jingshun great wall growth leading hybrid fund to be managed by Yang Ruiwen and Guangfa Juhong to be managed by Li Wei) Six months holding mixed funds, etc.), the subscription situation is not as expected, “28 phenomenon” is more obvious.

 

“The popularity of new fund issuance has indeed cooled down. No matter the subscription scale of a single fund, the number of ‘sunshine base’ or the marketing enthusiasm, all have decreased.” Yang Jiaxing, senior fund researcher of Tianxiang investment consulting, said that the cooling phenomenon may be related to fund companies’ judgment of the market and consideration of the pace of new fund positions. Since January, many newly established large-scale funds are facing the challenge of building positions at relatively high positions in the market. Huicheng Fund said that the current power of the equity market is insufficient, and the hot issue of equity funds may be difficult to continue in the short term.

 

Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief equity investment officer of China Southern Fund, pointed out that from the perspective of yield, investors need to reduce the expected yield in 2021. Historically, the annualized average return of long-term equity funds is about 15%. The average median rate of return of public equity funds in 2020 is about 58%, and that in 2019 is about 40%, which has actually exceeded 100% for two consecutive years.

 

But Shi Bo also believes that reducing earnings expectations does not mean that we are not optimistic about the future market. He said that the products managed by excellent fund managers will have certain excess returns. In the long run, the return level of the fund is still very considerable, and it is expected to outperform other major types of assets.

 

Watch out for “big work, fast progress”

 

“After the fund year of 2020, public funds are rising rapidly and are expected to continue to meet the investment demand of residents’ savings transferring to the capital market. However, this trend will be a slow and gradual process. It is neither necessary nor possible to achieve the goal of “finishing the battle” by issuing new funds in a short period of time. ” A market analyst in Shenzhen told China Securities News that since the beginning of 2021, under the background of rising spring market, fund companies have taken the opportunity to issue new funds intensively. “Some companies even said that they would strive to complete the annual new fund issuance plan before the Spring Festival.” However, fund issuance is only one of the operation links. Too fast issuance is not conducive to the subsequent position building, and it will also have a certain impact on the market expectation. The development of domestic public funds has only 20 years of history. Compared with “big efforts and fast progress”, the “small flow” may be more important.

 

Hu Lifeng, head of Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, believes that in 2019 and 2020, the return rate of shareholders is significantly lower than that of funders, and a large number of stock investors turn into funders. It is estimated that in 2021, the issuance and raising of stocks to funds will reach 2 trillion yuan, and the continuous sales will reach 1 trillion yuan. After investors realize the value of long-term investment of public funds, more funds are expected to flow into the stock market through public funds.

 

Yang Yuanchun, President of yingmi Fund Research Institute, said that there is nothing wrong with Jimin’s pursuit of star fund managers with outstanding performance. What we need to pay attention to is that we need to look at the real performance of fund managers in different market styles in the time dimension of more than five years. Outstanding performance is not only judged by the champion, but also by the players who can occupy the top third of the same type of fund managers in the long-term ranking.

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