CITIC Securities: trillion will be released soon, and the slow rise will continue in February
The central bank’s short-term adjustment of liquidity is not equal to a comprehensive turn, and the market overreacts. In the first quarter, domestic monetary policy does not have the conditions for a comprehensive turn, and the central bank is expected to launch a trillion level net investment in early February, which is expected to quickly repair market expectations. The market liquidity is still abundant. After the new public offering hit a new high in January, it is expected that the scale of public offering in February will still exceed 200 billion yuan. The scale of funds waiting for institutions to enter the market is huge, and the diversion of funds going south is small. February a shares are still in a steady inflow of funds driven by the wheel up slowly in the second half.
First of all, the short-term liquidity adjustment of the central bank is not equal to the overall shift of monetary policy. Its main consideration is to improve the Liquidity Fluctuation expectation and restrain the bond market from increasing leverage. Considering the economic pressure brought by the domestic sporadic epidemic, the pressure of RMB appreciation, and the liquidity demand near the Spring Festival, the monetary policy in the first quarter does not have the conditions for a comprehensive turn. It is estimated that before the Spring Festival, the central bank will invest a net 1.7 trillion yuan, and the liquidity environment will return to a reasonable and sufficient level to quickly improve market expectations. At the same time, the environment for loose liquidity overseas will remain unchanged, and the Fed will not stop expanding its balance sheet in the first half of the year at least. Secondly, the market liquidity is still abundant. After the new public offering equity products reached a new high of 318.9 billion yuan in January, it is expected that the scale of raising will also exceed 200 billion yuan in February, and the scale of institutions’ funds waiting to enter the market will reach a historical high. After the collapse of speculative clustering, the market will enter the calibration period of valuation and fundamentals; the capital inflow will be more stable, and the market will enter the capital driven slow rising stage. Finally, the market’s expectation of the economy in the first quarter and social finance in January will be moderately revised, but the impact is limited; at the same time, the transmission of overseas market adjustment to China is gradually weakening.
In terms of configuration, it is suggested to closely follow the two main lines of “five security” and performance exceeding expectations. In the “five security”, we should pay attention to the varieties that are still cost-effective, including semiconductor equipment, Xinchuang, rare earth, military industry, feed and seeds; in terms of performance exceeding expectations and the elasticity of first quarter report, we should pay attention to the leading varieties in the main line of major plate segmentation. In addition, it is suggested to continue to allocate Hong Kong stocks with two main lines of preference of mainland institutions and valuation “depression”, focusing on Internet leaders, telecom operators and online education.
Haitong Securities: the overall heat of the current market is close to 70 degrees
Judging from valuation, price comparison of major assets and trading indicators, the overall heat of the current market is close to 70 degrees. In the subdivision industry, the comprehensive heat of Baijiu, automobiles and electrical equipment is high, and the comprehensive heat of real estate, building decoration, media and so on is low. The spring market of a shares is still on the way. In the short term, we attach importance to stagflation and underestimate the industry. In the whole year, we are optimistic about science and technology + mass consumption.
China CITIC construction investment securities: control the position, do not recommend the stock Festival
Judging from the current situation, CSCI believes that the first narrow fluctuation has begun, and the market has entered the “back two into one” fluctuation mode. Therefore, the first timing after February 15, 2019: it is suggested that investors should reduce the overall position to neutral position and keep a balance between risk and return. From the short-term market point of view, the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market are in volatility. It is suggested that investors control their positions and pay attention to risks. It is suggested that investors should gradually reduce the allocation appropriately. It is not recommended to hold shares in 2021. After the Spring Festival, such as the market into a clear state, and then choose the opportunity to increase holdings.
In 2021, when the economic data confirmed that the price level rose significantly, housing prices rose, and bonds and stock markets bubble, the central bank would tighten liquidity. After the adjustment of the central bank’s monetary policy, it will continue to adjust in 2021. But the adjustment came after the economic data showed that the recovery was good. The adjustment of the central bank’s monetary policy is also in the case of China’s excellent macroeconomic data in December, which is earlier than the Q1 adjustment we expect in 2021. The next time to pay attention is after the first quarter of economic data, about April 2021.
It is suggested that investors allocate industries along the direction of economic transformation and upgrading: first, there will be more significant opportunities for manufacturing and manufacturing related upstream industries in 2021; second, with the rebound of manufacturing, new materials, new energy and other new cycle industries will have a bullwhip effect; third, the consumer industry will continue to boom, but the overvalued value will reduce the excess return.
Guotai Junan Securities: the market will fluctuate horizontally at 3450-3700 points
Last week’s market adjustment brought about by the rise of short-term interest rates will not be interpreted as a stock disaster, but the expectation of excessive optimism about liquidity in the early stage needs to be corrected, and the follow-up market will fluctuate horizontally at 3450-3700. Baotuan will not collapse for the time being, but we need to pay attention to the investment opportunities outside Baotuan and the investment opportunities in the south.
After the adjustment, we dare to be optimistic and dig out investment opportunities outside the group. 1) Blue chip is still the core style of the market in the next stage. We should pay attention to the opportunities of non group blue chip stocks, especially the global pricing cyclical products and midstream manufacturing industry with high prosperity, and recommend nonferrous metals / Petrochemicals / basic chemicals / machinery. 2) Looking horizontally at the industries with high value for money and reasonable chip structure, we recommend medicine / hotel / Tourism / furniture. 3) It is expected to fully adjust and return to the industries with fundamental growth, and recommend Electronics / new energy / military industry. In addition, southward investment focuses on three main lines: scarcity / high quality cost performance / adversity reversal.
CICC: the market may enter a temporary flat period
The core contradiction of stock market has become the marginal change of policy. Although the central bank has already taken some measures to release liquidity on Friday, concerns about the potential gradual change of policy and its impact on growth may be one of the focus of the market in the future. The recent round of adjustment may be a slightly longer round of consolidation after the accumulated sharp rebound of the low point on March 23 last year. Although there will be repeated after the sharp fall, the emotional side may cool down to a certain extent, and it is estimated that the proportion of investors turning to caution will expand. Unless there is a favorable short-term change in the policy direction, it is expected that the market may enter a temporary flat period, and there will be some changes in the future The debate over whether the relevant policies are loose or tight, and whether growth is peaking, etc. may be the continuing focus.
Industry recommendations: structure, light index. 1) Consumption will continue to recover in the whole year or at a low base with relatively high certainty, which is still the key direction of bottom-up stock selection; 2) to absorb the high prosperity areas in the upper reaches of the new energy and new energy automobile industry chain on bargain hunting; 3) to focus on the bottom-up and bargain hunting opportunities of electronic semiconductors and other technology hardware in the field of science and technology and industry autonomy; 4) to focus on some metal raw materials in cyclical industries Crude oil industry chain, etc.
Anxin Securities: firm confidence, grasp the three major layout opportunities
Affected by the tight liquidity in the inter-bank market, A-shares have made a comprehensive correction, which has aroused investors’ concern about the policy shift.
First of all, investors should not worry too much about the tightening of liquidity. The tone of “no sharp turn” in the current economic and financial environment has not changed. After the correction of the overly optimistic liquidity expectation in the early stage, the policy level will not continue to tighten. Secondly, micro liquidity will have a more direct impact on a shares. The issuance of new equity funds in January is expected to reach 500 billion yuan, and there are also many star fund products to be launched in February. The demand for these incremental funds to build positions will provide support to the market. Finally, due to the seasonal effect of liquidity and risk preference, A-shares are relatively weak in the Spring Festival, and often have a “good start” after the festival.
It is suggested that three major directions should be actively arranged before the festival: first, industries with high annual report performance; second, Baima leading enterprises with excellent performance, clear logic and reasonable valuation, which are suitable for new fund positions. Third, industries that are expected to benefit from the improvement of the epidemic situation and usher in recovery. Industry focus: Food and beverage, medicine, home appliances, military industry, chemical industry, banking, etc.
Industrial Securities: the most tense stage of liquidity may have passed
Liquidity disturbance, increased volatility, absolute return before the Spring Festival is safe, strong mood, many factors accelerate the market adjustment. But on the whole, the view that we are optimistic about the long window period before the two sessions has not changed. The fundamentals are still in the stage of domestic and global resonance upward, the liquidity of stock market is relatively abundant as a whole, and the residents’ financial management funds and global allocation funds continue to enter the market. At the current time point, liquidity has become the focus of attention due to the combination of various factors at the end of January, but perhaps the most urgent stage has passed.
Make use of the better window period at the present stage, combine with the prosperity direction of the annual report, adjust the position structure, select high-quality companies, and embrace the core assets. From the perspective of plate allocation, two main lines are recommended in the annual strategy “new pattern in the era of rights and interests”: 1) the domestic economy resonates with the global recovery, PPI goes up, and focuses on the manufacturing cycle in the middle and upper reaches, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, machinery and household appliances. 2) Growth stocks spread from high-end equipment such as military industry, new energy and machinery to computer (security, cloud), communication (optical module), media (game), intelligent driving and electronics (passive components and semiconductor).
Founder Securities: keep optimistic and actively participate
The main contradiction of the market in February is liquidity and risk preference, among which liquidity is the winner and loser of the market. The short-term liquidity tension has a periodic disturbance on the market, and more attention is paid to the direction of medium and long-term interest rate changes. The time point is expected to be in the middle and late March, and risk preference focuses on the nature of US stock adjustment.
In terms of liquidity, the economy recovered faster than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, the credit risk did not spread further and the property market in some cities was hot, which led to the central bank’s operation turning from warm to cold. The keynote of the central bank is “stable”, which includes not only the rhythm of “no sharp turn”, but also the policy bottom line that does not cause financial risks. The pace of liquidity recovery is too fast, which does not meet the policy requirements. It is expected to usher in a relaxation window next week. The restart of 14 day reverse repurchase and MLF operation are worthy of attention. In terms of risk preference, we need to focus on the adjustment nature of US stocks. From the four 10% level adjustments of US stocks since 2018, they are all caused by the rapid rise of interest rates and the increase of economic growth uncertainty. Recently, the US Federal Reserve’s liquidity investment has remained stable, and the US bond yield has not risen sharply after breaking 1%. It is preliminarily judged that the adjustment range of US stocks in this round is relatively limited, which does not constitute a continuous suppression of risk preference.
In the first quarter, we remain optimistic, actively participate and live up to the Spring Festival. It is suggested to focus on the sectors with sustained high prosperity and sustainable performance verification. In February, we should choose chemical industry, pharmaceutical biology and national defense industry as the first choice.
Securities in the new era: full adjustment
Compared with the impact of tight policy on the stock market in history, the adjustment last week has been more adequate. There are two main reasons: first, the interest rate recovery cycle is generally divided into three stages. The first stage has been completed from May to October 2020. If the policy target interest rates (reverse repurchase, MLF, SLF, etc.) are not raised, it is difficult to enter the second stage immediately, and the short-term interest rate space should not be large. Second, the incremental capital of a shares in 2021 is stronger than that in 2010 and 2017, and weaker than that in 2006-2007, so the time and space for this adjustment should be less than that in the first half of 2010 and the first half of 2017.
Due to the short-term interest rate disturbance, the incremental capital of the stock market may slow down for half a month, and the core difference of the plate may become the focus on the annual report and the first quarter report. In terms of style, cycle and growth are more likely to exceed expectations. It is recommended to focus on new energy vehicles, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and electronics.
Guosheng Securities: the most panic point has passed, waiting for a new high after the festival
The current fear of liquidity tightening is expected to gradually ease around the Spring Festival. First of all, in the face of the recent shortage of funds and market concerns, regulatory leaders have repeatedly stressed on many important occasions that the policy “will not make a sharp turn” and “will not give up the support policy prematurely”. On January 29, the central bank also invested 100 billion yuan of liquidity through reverse repurchase. Secondly, the central bank’s liquidity arrangements for the Spring Festival are expected to be released next week, which will allay the worries of some investors. In addition, with the peak of liquidity demand in the spring festival gradually passing, the tight liquidity situation in the market will also be eased.
After the Spring Festival, the new year’s market is expected to reach a new high. 1. After the short-term adjustment, the accumulated fear of high and profit taking sentiment of the current market due to the early rapid rise has been released significantly. 2. Around the Spring Festival, the current fear of liquidity tightening will gradually ease. 2. What’s more, it emphasizes again the view in the annual strategy “from macro to micro, still institutional bull”, that the liquidity of A-share market will remain abundant for a long time under the condition that the macro liquidity will not enlarge greatly and the incremental capital dominated by institutional capital will continue to flow in steadily. Whether it is A-share or high-quality assets of Hong Kong stocks, they will continue to benefit from the irrigation of incremental funds.
Investment strategy: actively participate in the new year’s market along three fronts: under the current currency credit portfolio, semiconductor, new energy, military and other sectors are optimistic about the growth direction. The new business includes high energy, light energy, wind power, machinery, medicine, Baijiu and electronics. Hong Kong stocks ushered in a “clear” bull market, focusing on the technology giants and value leaders of Hong Kong stocks.
article links：Securities companies: the most panic time has passed
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information