The market volatility increases, will the rebound come to an abrupt end?

On November 10, the three major A-share stock indexes adjusted weakly, and the ChiNext index performed weakly. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to close at 3360 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.05% to close at 13,993 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1.45% to close at 2773 points. On the disk, aviation, energy, and liquor were among the top gainers; precious metals, automobiles, and semiconductors were among the top decliners.
Wind data shows that the net outflow of northbound funds throughout the day is 4.109 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect is 2.144 billion yuan, and the net outflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect is 6.253 billion yuan.

【Institutional Viewpoint】
Guosheng Securities: With the digestion of external uncertainties, the global economy is expected to accelerate the resonant recovery. Under the expected heating up of internal policies, we are optimistic about the new year’s market from now to the first quarter of next year, and the level may exceed expectations. Active participation is recommended. In terms of direction, focus on three main lines: new energy, semiconductor and other sectors with high expectations in the “14th Five-Year Plan” policy; business perspective: focus on new energy, machinery, home appliances, automobiles, and chemical industries; benefit from the expected recovery of global economic resonance Optional consumption and procyclical sectors.
Huaxin Securities: The area of ​​3350-3450 points is already the core pressure area. A truly effective breakthrough still requires continuous amplification of energy. In short, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards and even break through the box after the risk event has gradually landed. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently close to 3,400 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index has hit a 5-year high intraday, and the market is showing signs of becoming hotter.
Shanxi Securities: The market sentiment will continue to pick up. The current index has hit the upper edge of the box, and some indexes have broken through first. my country’s economy has a comparative advantage, and foreign capital is expected to continue to flow in. In addition, the leading indicators of the economy are clearly improving, and the future macroeconomic climate will increase again. With the gradual entry of wait-and-see funds, we are optimistic about the mid-term performance of A-shares. Investors are advised to pay attention to the heavyweights that conform to the long-term main line logic.

 

【Institutional outlook】
Regarding the follow-up trend of A-shares, Guotai Junan said that the global economic recovery is expected to rise, and it is optimistic about the impact of the index. Since October, the style and industry structure of the A-share market have been significantly extended: the cycle is divided, and the market spreads to consumption and technology. However, the direction of diffusion is consistent, and they all lie in industries with improved profit expectations (such as automobiles, home appliances, textiles and clothing, new energy, etc.). Behind the changes in market structure is the shift from investors focusing on the certainty of short-term performance to the improvement of long-term profitability and industry prosperity.
Orient Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, A shares will enjoy huge opportunities brought about by the dividends of industrial and institutional policies during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. With the deepening of economic structural transformation and the advancement of China’s “internal circulation” policy, the proportion of the overall technology and asset-light sectors will increase significantly. In the short and medium term, with the gradual implementation of various domestic long-term plans, short-term market uncertainty will be gradually eliminated, and the superimposed performance will continue to be repaired. The confidence of A shares is expected to be restored, and it is recommended to make active allocation.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that in the context of the gradual recovery of the global economy, China’s exports continued to rebound, helping China’s economy continue to rebound. The economic rebound has made more pro-cyclical industries appear more obvious investment opportunities, the export chain and the real estate post-cycle overlapped areas, such as home appliances, light industry, auto parts; bulk commodities such as nonferrous metals, chemicals, coal; and economic restoration Financial real estate repaired at a very low valuation has a greater opportunity. A-shares are expected to break through the previous highs and rise, ushering in an obvious new year’s market.

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