According to the latest research report released yesterday by IC insight, a research institution in the semiconductor industry, China originally expected to achieve 70% self-sufficiency rate of semiconductor chips by 2025, but according to the current development situation, it may only achieve 20% at most by 2025, far behind the target.
According to IC Insights data, the total semiconductor chip market in mainland China in 2020 was 143 billion 400 million US dollars, and the output value of semiconductor chips made in mainland China was about 22 billion 700 million US dollars, accounting for about 15.9%, which was 5.6 percentage points higher than that in 2010 (10.2%).
According to IC Insights’s prediction, the market of semiconductor chips in mainland China will reach 223 billion US dollars by 2025, and the annual compound growth rate will reach 9.2% in 2020-2025 years. The output value of semiconductor chips in mainland China will reach 43 billion 200 million US dollars in 2025, and the annual compound growth rate will reach 13.7% in 2020-2025 years. According to this forecast data, the output value of semiconductor chips produced by Chinese mainland will reach 19.4% in Chinese mainland semiconductor chip market by 2025, though it has increased 3.5 percentage points compared with 2020.
In August 2020, the State Council issued several policies to promote the high-quality development of integrated circuit industry and software industry in the new era, which clearly pointed out that China’s chip self-sufficiency rate should reach 70% by 2025. Obviously, this is far from the IC Insights’s prediction of self sufficiency rate of chips less than 20% in Chinese mainland in 2025.
China’s Chinese mainland’s semiconductor chip products in 2020 are also worth a lot of other 43 billion 200 million dollars, and most of them are produced by enterprises and foreign enterprises in Taiwan, China’s headquarters outside Chinese mainland. For example, TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel, and associated power companies have factories in China.
According to IC Insights’s prediction, in 2020, China’s semiconductor products made of China’s $22 billion 700 million worth of semiconductor chips only cost US $8 billion 300 million, accounting for 36.5%. If we put it into China’s semiconductor market in 2020, it will only account for 5.8%.
If we look more closely, IC Insights predicts that about $2 billion 300 million of the $8 billion 300 million semiconductor chip produced by mainland China will come from vertically integrated manufacturers (IDM), while the remaining $6 billion will be contributed by SMIC and other pure wafer manufacturers.
For the 2025 estimate, IC Insights said that even if China’s capacity of domestic chip manufacturers such as Changjiang storage and Changxin storage increased significantly, it still believed that the output value of semiconductor chips produced by overseas semiconductor companies in China would still be as high as 50% of the total value of China’s continental semiconductor chip (43 billion 200 million US dollars) in 2025.
This means that by 2025, the output value of semiconductor chips that are truly made by Chinese mainland enterprises will still be less than 21 billion 600 million dollars, and less than 10% of the Chinese mainland semiconductor chip market (US $223 billion). That is to say, in a strict sense, the self-supporting rate of semiconductor chips supported by mainland enterprises in China will probably be less than 10% by 2025. If all the chips made in Chinese mainland are made by self – made, the self-sufficiency rate is still less than 20%.
However, it should be pointed out that IC China’s Chinese mainland’s chip manufacturers are not the chips that are produced by Chinese chip manufacturers, but they are not imported from China’s wafer factories, but also enter China’s market by importing chips. But these chips are set up by Chinese chip manufacturers, Insights’s statistics are more focused on China’s self-sufficiency rate in the field of chip manufacturing. The degree of autonomy in chip design is also a key factor to reflect the chip self-sufficiency.
For example, many chips that do not rely on advanced manufacturing processes or special processes lacking in China can be produced domestically when overseas manufacturing is limited, so as to achieve self-sufficiency. Moreover, in the next five years, with the support of the state and the efforts of domestic fabs, it is also expected to achieve gradual breakthroughs in advanced manufacturing processes and special processes required by many chips. Therefore, China’s mainland chip self sufficiency rate of IC Insights is less than 20% in 2025, which is obviously underestimated.
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information