On the morning of August 9, real estate stocks rebounded. As of press time, Poly Real Estate and Jindi group have closed the board, Wanda has soared by 7.77%, and China Merchants Shekou has soared by 5.83%. The whole sector index rose more than 4%, ranking second in the industry.
According to the latest research report data of Tianfeng securities, a total of 29700 first-hand houses were tracked in 36 major cities last week, with a month on month decrease of 20.03%, a year-on-year decrease of 26.84%, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 31.72%, a decrease of 2.59 percentage points compared with the previous week. The transactions of second-hand houses in 11 cities tracked last week totaled 8600 units, a month on month decrease of 20.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 43.89%, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.5%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points compared with last week. As of the statistical date, the total number of residential units available for sale in 14 major cities in China was 426300, with a decontamination cycle of 20.1 weeks, with a month on month decrease of 28.66%, of which the month on month growth rates of first tier and second tier cities were – 59.95% and – 0.15% respectively.
China Merchants Securities believes that the current increase in the holdings of leading real estate enterprises has appeared. In any case, if real estate enterprises dare to increase their holdings, set equity incentives, repurchase cancellation or steadily increase dividends, it is likely to prove their cash flow creation ability and growth ability. From the perspective of current fundamentals, the overall sales growth rate may fall (making a large contribution to the base outside the credit). The two-year compound growth fell in June but rebounded in July (historically, July was also the off-season). Looking forward to the second half of the year, the business initiative of real estate enterprises with strong hematopoietic ability should be displayed. In any case, the buying sector still buys the alpha of “good company”, Instead of a relaxed beta game, recommend Vanke A and Poly Real estate, high-quality turnover companies with strong “hematopoietic ability”.
Galaxy Securities believes that under the environment of industry supply side reform, real estate enterprises are both risks and opportunities for high-quality residential development. The industry valuation is at the lowest level in history and has sufficient safety margin; The property management industry has ushered in a golden age in an all-round way, with trillions of market space helping to make a leap, and the industry has entered a stage of resonance between fundamentals and policies. At present, the industry is in the stage of rapid expansion. Science and technology can accelerate the development of the industry. High performance guidance and enterprise brand strength create imagination space for the improvement of valuation.
Tianfeng Securities believes that the supply side will continue to focus on standardizing the order of the real estate market, the demand side will continue to control real estate speculation and maintain the preferential intensity of just needed house purchase, and the “implementation of policies due to the city” will remain normalized“ Due to the normalization of “urban policy implementation”, the policy stability will be improved, the risk premium rate of the industry will be reduced, and the re tightening of the financing end of the industry may further catalyze the differentiation among enterprises. From the perspective of real estate enterprises, the three red lines will profoundly change the business behavior of real estate enterprises in the next three years. Many enterprises have to accelerate the introduction of downshifting measures, the industry risk premium rate is down, the debt value of downshifted Housing enterprises is increased and the equity value is weakened. In the past, strong investment companies with high expected gross profit margin will be weaker than strong operation companies with low expected gross profit margin. Continue to recommend: Vanke A Poly Real estate, Jindi group, rongchuang China, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou.