The rise in real estate prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities was stable on the whole, with a slight decline. New home prices in 36 cities rose month-on-month, while 28 fell, the most this year. Analysts believe that in November, prices in the first, second and third-tier cities have dropped or remained flat, while prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the core second and third-tier cities have a high resilience index. The cooling trend of the real estate market is related to the regulation and upgrading and the promotion of real estate enterprises. The new round of regulation and regulation policies are expected to continue to be upgraded in the future.
In 2020, the housing price showed a trend of first high and then low. Experts pointed out that the 70-city housing prices released in November sent out four signals: first, housing prices have reached a bottom; The other is that some cities are tightening their regulations and adding more regulations. The third is that cities rise and fall clearly, and differentiation will be the main melody of the future first, second, third and fourth tier cities. Its 4 it is money puts water, buy a house to copy bottom inflection point came.
File photo of China-Singapore longitude and latitude
The property market cooling
Prices rose in only 36 of the 70 cities
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices in four first-tier cities rose 0.2 percent in November, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month, according to a preliminary estimate released by National Day, chief statistician of the bureau’s urban division. Among them, Beijing lost 0.1 percent, Shanghai and Shenzhen were flat, and Guangzhou gained 0.9 percent. Sales prices of second-hand homes rose 0.5 per cent month-on-month, the same increase as the previous month. In Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, gains were 0.5 per cent, 0.3 per cent, 0.8 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively.
In 31 second-tier cities, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings rose 0.1 percent month-on-month, the same increase as in the previous month. The sales price of second-hand housing rose 0.1% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The sales price of new commercial residential buildings in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Second-hand home sales prices rose 0.2 per cent month-on-month, the same increase as the previous month.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
According to the simple arithmetic average, the national index of new commercial housing prices in 70 cities rose 0.1 per cent month-on-month and 4.0 per cent year-on-year in November.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Think Tank Center, made an analysis on the client of Zhongxin Jingwei. “The month-on-month price increase data of 70 cities has been shrinking for three consecutive months, and the year-on-year price increase has been shrinking for five consecutive months, which fully indicates the trend of cooling the price increase.”
“New home prices rose in 36 cities in 70 cities in November, the lowest figure since the outbreak. Second-hand housing rose in 44 cities, which was basically flat.” Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, told Singapore-china Jingwei client that the “golden Nine Silver ten” in 2020 has passed, and the overall property market began to show a significant slowdown from September to November after the boom in July and August.
Why has the property market cooled? Zhang Dawei believes that, first of all, regulatory policies continue to upgrade, since the second half of the year 32 cities to tighten the property policy, although the intensity varies, but to tighten the main. The influence on the market, especially the influence on the new housing gradually appeared, many cities of the new housing price limit policy has affected the price of new housing. So the housing data is slowly rising.
Secondly, the market supply increased, most of the enterprise sales are to seize the end of the year to increase supply, some enterprises have also appeared promotional behavior.
Yan Yuejin also pointed out that, “the cooling trend of the property market is related to the overall market environment this year. In particular, real estate enterprises in order to speed up the completion of the annual sales work, will also consciously lower the price promotion. In addition, some cities, such as Xi ‘an and Ningbo, have tightened policies, which shows that there is still an urgent need to stabilize housing prices at the end of the year.
Notably, Jining was the city with the fastest month-on-month price rise and the only city with a rise of more than 1 per cent. Yan believes that the housing price rise in such cities is related to urban planning and so on. Especially in the southwest of Shandong, such as the city high-speed rail planning is better, the property market is also easy to lift.
Prices for second-hand homes rose slightly
Guangzhou takes the lead
In terms of second-hand housing, the price index of second-hand housing sales in 70 cities rose 0.1 percent month-on-month and 2.1 percent year-on-year in November. Yan yuejin pointed out that compared with the data of the primary housing, the relative cooling of the secondary housing has been less recently, or at least the growth rate has not narrowed too significantly.
As a result of the existence of a new house price limit, limit the price control policy, the second-hand housing price is more real. November, Guangzhou, Hefei, Xuzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing second-hand housing prices month-on-month growth ranked in the top five, of which, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing up 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.5%. Zhang dawei believes that these cities are basically the previous control has been significantly restrained cities, the recent rise in the national hot cities including Shenzhen, the impact of the housing price recovery stabilized.
“Guangzhou and Shenzhen are among the top cities in terms of housing prices. The core reason is that the Greater Bay Area has enjoyed a relatively good economic recovery and relatively high investment attributes. However, local regulatory policies have not yet stopped the market from heating up.” He believes that with the acceleration of price rises in these cities, a new round of regulation policies are expected to continue to upgrade. The trend of price rise in most cities is unchanged, but the growth rate will continue to slow.