The capital construction cycle is coming

The stock funds in the market are replaced back and forth between the oversold sector and popular industries. On August 2, there was a big reversal in the trend among market sectors. At the beginning of the session, once strong semiconductors and new energy (lithium and photovoltaic stocks) plunged rapidly, while the oversold sectors broke out in the early stage, and engineering machinery, chemical fiber, building materials cement and shipping stocks rose rapidly, including Sany Heavy Industry and conch cement.

In the morning trading on August 2, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and the seesaw effect of capital flow between plates was significant. As of midday closing, the Shanghai index rose 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.44% and the gem index rose 0.53%. On the disk, military industry, pork, Baijiu and other sectors are among the top gainers. Steel, coal, semiconductor chips and other sectors led the decline.


Baijiu rebound

Baijiu plate early fell rapidly, Shuijingfang fell more than 8%, Shanxi Fenjiu fell 5%, wine and Guizhou Moutai fell 3%, Wuliangye, Gujing Gong liquor and so on have been down. But after 10:30, the Baijiu plate began to rebound sharply, and the group pulled up. Guizhou’s Moutai midday closing rose more than 4%, at 1747 yuan, and its market value was 2 trillion and 620 billion yuan. The first time it fell 3%.

Guizhou Maotai disclosed its semi annual report last Friday evening, with a revenue of 49.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%; The net profit was 24.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08%, which was the first time that the net profit growth rate of Guizhou Maotai fell back to single digits since 2016. At the same time, it was disclosed that e fund blue chip selected hybrid securities investment fund managed by Zhang Kun withdrew from the top ten circulating shareholders.

After the results were announced, institutions generally believed that the results met expectations. However, as the single digit growth rate of net profit in the first half of the year hit a new low in recent five years, Maotai plunged 3.47% to 1620.72 yuan in early trading, and the share price hit a new low since October last year.

Guosen Securities research report pointed out that Maotai led Maotai index stocks have lost the logic of continuing to pull out the valuation, and even there is pressure for the valuation to fall from a high level. Looking back, the most clear investment direction of the market is the industrial upgrading of China’s economy. Insiders believe that Baijiu downtrend or difficult short-term reversal, the future market orientation will be heavy technology, heavy industry, heavy environmental protection new energy, rather than heavy baijiu.

Swellfun, which has fallen sharply for days, once fell more than 8% in the morning and narrowed its closing decline to less than 0.24% at noon. Swellfun announced on August 1 that after several rounds of consultation and in-depth discussion, the company, Liang Mingfeng and Guowei company were difficult to reach an agreement on several important commercial arrangements of the joint venture project. Swellfun decided to send a friendly notice to the other party according to the relevant provisions of the framework agreement to terminate the framework agreement and the joint venture project, and neither party shall bear any responsibility. The company announced the layout of sauce wine in April this year, when the share price rose by the limit.

China Merchants Securities reported that the food and beverage sector was severely down last week, mainly due to overseas market adjustment and the impact of the epidemic. The market is worried about the continued adjustment of Baijiu industry valuation. This year Baijiu industry volume and price performance is more positive, at present, the major liquor enterprises task progress is ahead of the company’s expectations, the whole year is still expected to successfully complete the goal. Looking back at history, China Merchants Securities believes that it is difficult to predict the demand side, but strong barriers on the supply side and reasonable valuation can ensure the rate of return. Combined with the valuation analysis, the current high-end Baijiu has fallen out of value. It is suggested that long term funds continue to buy. It is recommended to pay attention to the sub high-end brands with marginal improvement.

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