Baijiu stocks staged a “Jedi counter attack”. In August 2nd, the Baijiu concept index continued to rise, and stocks were all red across the whole line.
As of press time, Huangtai liquor industry has closed the limit, Jiugui Liquor has increased by more than 9%, willing liquor industry and Yingjia tribute liquor have increased by more than 7%, Shanxi Fen Liquor and Hainan Coconut Island have increased by more than 6%, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have increased by 5%, Laobaigan liquor and Guizhou Maotai have increased by more than 4%.
Guizhou Maotai’s net profit exceeded 24.6 billion in the first half of the year
In early trading today, Guizhou Maotai once fell more than 3% to a low of 1620 yuan, then hit the bottom and rebounded all the way up. As of press time, the share price rose more than 4%.
On the evening of July 30, Guizhou Maotai disclosed the semi annual report, and the company realized an operating revenue of 49.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%; The net profit was 24.654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08%.
During the reporting period, the company produced 50300 tons of base liquor, including 37800 tons of Maotai base liquor and 12500 tons of series base liquor. During the reporting period, the net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 21.72 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 72.09%. The semi annual report said that it was mainly due to the increase in the net increase of customer deposits and interbank deposits in the current period.
In addition, half year report shows that Zhang Kun’s steering group of the easy to choose blue chip selection hybrid securities investment fund withdrew from the top ten shareholders, and the CSI Baijiu index index classified securities investment fund was the ten largest shareholder before the new Jin Dynasty.
The Pacific released a research report that it maintained the buy rating of Guizhou Maotai, with a target price of 2500 yuan. The reasons for rating mainly include: (1) good revenue and cash flow performance, stable advance receipts and stable statement quality（ 2) Series of liquor grew rapidly, Maotai liquor slowed down slightly, which was consistent with the business rhythm in the second quarter, and the proportion of direct sales increased greatly（ 3) Related party transactions were stable and controllable, and base liquor continued to grow.
Open source Securities pointed out that the logic of Guizhou Maotai channel and product reform has been verified at the statement end. Maotai liquor has strong demand and strong performance certainty. The company’s valuation has reached a reasonable range, and the configuration value has been further highlighted.
Baijiu stocks bottomed up, how to go after market?
The open source securities show that the liquor industry’s overall consumption upgrading and brand concentration trend remain unchanged. At present, the wholesale price of products is generally stable, channel inventory is low, demand is stable, and the industry boom is still high. With the rapid return of stock prices, Baijiu plate price performance gradually revealed, and suggested that the layout of the bargain.
Guotai Junan said that Maotai China Daily continued to present high-quality statements, and the stable performance of the leading group is expected to inject a centering agent into the fluctuation. The high growth of Fenjiu and drunkard predicted in the China Daily has been disclosed, and it is expected that Wulu China Daily will also have good fundamental support. Baijiu gradually shifted from the off-season to the peak season. At present, the overall demand for high-end is strong, and the capacity to control volume and price in the off-season has been continuously improved. The operation has been steady and long-term. Currently, the valuation has obvious advantages under the current stock price (Mao Lu Lu corresponds to 22 34X, 29X, 27X) for five years. The secondary high-end still maintains high elasticity year-on-year, and the performance of core large items is outstanding, which is expected to drive the structural upgrading. Recommended Holdings: Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor.
China Merchants Securities research report pointed out that last week, the food and beverage sector was sharply down, mainly affected by the adjustment of overseas markets and the impact of the epidemic. The market was worried about the continuous adjustment of the liquor industry valuation. This year, the liquor industry volume and price performance is more positive. At present, the Baijiu Baijiu enterprises are ahead of the company’s expectations in terms of the progress of their tasks, and the whole year is still expected to successfully complete the target. China Merchants Securities believes that the demand side of liquor is difficult to predict, but the strong supply side barriers and reasonable valuation can guarantee the yield. Combined with the valuation analysis, the current high-end liquor has fallen out of value. It is suggested that long term funds continue to buy. It is recommended to pay attention to the sub high-end brands with marginal improvement.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the recent significant adjustment of the food and beverage sector is mainly related to the secondary spread of the epidemic, capital outflow caused by policy risks, relatively weak performance in the off-season of consumption, concerns about sauce and wine inventory and concerns about Maotai statements. There is no need to amplify the negative in the short term, and Maotai statements still maintain a steady increase; Medium and long term is still optimistic about the structural opportunities brought by the vertical increase. Baijiu represented a good business model of food and beverage sector, and has strong profitability. It is recommended to closely track the recent changes in capital and fundamentals, and choose the opportunity to warehouse the core assets of food and beverage.