Valuations are at record highs and can rise

In the intraday trading on July 29, the three major indexes rose collectively, and the photovoltaic concept plate set off a tide of trading. As of the press release, the plate had increased by nearly 5%. Jiayu shares (300117), Yongfu shares (300712) and xinlai Yingcai 20cm, photovoltaic giant sunshine power (300274) rose by more than 18%, and Shanghai Energy (300827), goodway, Jiuzhou Group (300040), Trina Solar Pilot intelligence (300450) increased by more than 10%.

On the news, on July 19, 2021, Anhui Provincial Department of economy and information technology issued the action plan for the development of photovoltaic industry in Anhui Province (2021-2023).

The document specifies that by 2023, the technical level and innovation ability of the province’s photovoltaic industry will be further improved, the industrial scale will reach a new level, the industrial system will be improved, a number of key projects with good economic benefits and strong driving force will be built, more than five 10 billion enterprises with outstanding innovation ability and international competitiveness will be cultivated and expanded, and a number of upstream and downstream supporting enterprises will be driven, Promote the implementation of a number of application demonstrations in characteristic industries that can be popularized and replicated, strive to break through 80gw of solar (000591) cells and modules in the province, maintain the national leading output, double the operating revenue in three years, and realize 150 billion yuan of industrial chain output value, so as to build our province into a province with significant agglomeration effect and perfect coordination and supporting facilities A new highland for the development of green energy industry with outstanding international competitiveness.

In addition, the document clearly will promote the accelerated implementation of GCL 60GW high efficiency modules, Tongwei 5GW high efficiency modules, Jiayue new energy 8GW cells, Dongfang Risheng (300118) 8GW cells and 5GW modules, Kaisheng photovoltaic solar cell modules, Huasheng new energy heterojunction cells and modules, GuoXuan energy storage battery, foster (603806) adhesive film, Xinyi Jiangbei photovoltaic module cover plate and other expansion projects.

Accelerate the cultivation and growth of enterprises, focus on introducing key enterprises in the photovoltaic industry such as Tongwei, Jingao, Longji, aixu, Trina Solar, Jingke, Atlas, Dongfang Risheng and GCL, and further expand the team of leading enterprises in the province. At the same time, the document clearly promotes the accelerated development of small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises. With the accelerated implementation of production expansion projects and the introduction of photovoltaic backbone enterprises, the main body of photovoltaic market in Anhui Province is expected to further grow, and the demand for photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment is expected to accelerate.

The installed capacity of downstream households increased significantly, and the output of main materials increased significantly

According to the data of the national energy administration, the installed capacity of domestic solar power generation in 2021h1 is 13.01gw, a year-on-year increase of 28.18%; Among them, the household installed capacity was 5.86gw, a year-on-year increase of 187.25%. Under the background of low base in the same period, the domestic installed capacity in the first half of the year was slightly lower than expected, which was related to the inhibition of high price components on the demand for centralized photovoltaic. The household installed capacity shows strong growth toughness. In 2021h1, China’s polysilicon output was 238000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; Silicon wafer output was 105gw, with a year-on-year increase of 40%; The output of battery cells was 92.4gw, with a year-on-year increase of 56.6%; The output of components was 80.2gw, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. The output of silicon wafers, batteries and components increased significantly, which is related to the rapid expansion of production capacity in all links.

Industrial chain prices fell slightly

The negative feedback effect of high priced silicon material on downstream demand is obvious, and the silicon material price continues to decline slightly; Central lowered the price of M6 silicon wafer, the operating rate of head silicon wafer enterprises was at a low level, the capacity of new entrants was continuously released, and the price of silicon wafer is expected to still fall; The price of battery chips declined slightly, and the price of components was basically stable. With the peak season coming in the second half of the year, the price of silicon material is difficult to fall sharply, and the downward space of component price is limited.

Maintain the industry’s investment rating of “stronger than the big market”

Zhongyuan securities research report pointed out that as of July 27, 2021, the valuation level of photovoltaic index was at an all-time high. At present, the market pays more attention to the installed capacity expectation in 2022 and the long-term development prospect of the industry than the short-term profit expectation. The short-term sector rose significantly, with a certain callback risk. However, the long-term development logic of the sector is relatively clear and highly determined, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the valuation. It is suggested to focus on inverters, thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass and integrated head enterprises in the medium term.

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