Spark Global Limited reports:
The rare earth price index has rebounded more than 21.7 percent from its June low, with prices for some rare earths up more than 30 percent in July.
On Wednesday, the concept of rare earth permanent magnet continued to strengthen. Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. closed its daily limit in the morning and Northern Rare Earth Co., Ltd. stood up by its daily limit in the afternoon, with its stock price hitting a record high and its total market value exceeding 140 billion yuan. Minmetals Rare Earth Co., Ltd., Shenghe Resources Co., Ltd., Xiamen Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd., Earth Bear Co., Ltd.
Since July, the rare earth permanent magnet plate by the fund attention, this month the index has increased by more than 17%, leading North Rare Earth, Minmetals Rare Earth, Baotou Steel shares rose by more than 90%, 70% and 50% in July respectively.
Rare earth prices have risen rapidly, with exports surging nearly 50 per cent in June
Rare earth prices have begun a rapid rebound since bottoming in late June.
The rare earth price index hit a stage low of 201.1 points on June 28, according to the Rare Earth Industry Association, before quickly rebounding to 244.8 on June 21, up more than 21.7 percent from the low.
In this round of rapid price rise of rare earth, all products have increased to varying degrees, among which light rare earth continues to rise, and the market is improving. The daily price of praseodymium oxide reached 598,500 yuan per ton on July 21, surpassing the high of 591,500 yuan per ton in March this year and up more than 28 percent from the June low, according to data from Baichuan Information. Although praseodymium did not break its March high, prices rebounded more than 28 per cent in July. Holmium oxide and gadolinium oxide have increased by more than 30% since July, while neodymium oxide and terbium oxide have increased by more than 20%.
(Photo credit: Business Club)
This week, the listed prices of rare earth in South China also increased strongly, among which the guiding price of terbium oxide was reported at 7.2 million yuan/ton – 7.3 million yuan/ton, an increase of 600,000 yuan/ton compared with last week’s guiding price. Dysprosium oxide guidance price quoted 2.55 million yuan/ton – 2.6 million yuan/ton, 130,000 yuan/ton higher than last week’s guidance price.
At the same time, the export of rare earth has increased significantly. Exports of rare earths and their products reached 9,071 tons in June, up 49.4 percent year on year, with exports worth 2.027 billion yuan, up 75.5 percent year on year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs.
The main reasons for the rise in rare earth prices since the beginning of July are as follows: on the one hand, the low season of the downstream rare earth is not weak this year, which is driven by the strong demand for new energy and other downstream sources, and the pre-replenishment effect is obvious; On the other hand, due to the arrival of the rainy season and the increasing outbreak of the epidemic in Myanmar, some smelting and separation plants have been closed down under the state environmental protection supervision recently, further aggravating the shortage of rare earth supply. The basic supply and demand of rare earth prices form a strong support.
Agency said rare earth valuation system is expected to usher in restructuring
Northeast Securities said that the current rare earth is standing in the starting point of a new era of supply and demand reshaping, the future rare earth plate will no longer be a vague theme investment, but investment in real industrial reform and the industry medium – and long-term high prosperity. In 2020, the demand in the new energy field accounts for about 14% of the terminal demand for rare earth praseodymium and neodymium, which is comparable to the demand for lithium in 2015-2016 and the demand for cobalt in 2018. The proportion is expected to rise to 22% and 27% in 2023 and 2025. The strengthening of the property of upstream materials of new energy will give higher growth to the demand end of rare earth. The characteristics of strict policy control and high industry concentration make the supply side of rare earth even better than lithium cobalt, and the valuation system of rare earth is expected to usher in restructuring.
CITIC Securities also said that the allocation of the whole industrial chain of rare earth time has come, rare earth plate or to usher in performance and valuation of Davis double click, the strategic value of rare earth resources revaluation.
A – share listed companies, rare earth permanent magnet stocks have more than 20. In terms of the market, Northern Rare Earth, Minmetals Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Shenghe Resources and Rising Nonferrous Metals have risen more than 40% since July, among which Northern Rare Earth and Huahong Science and Technology have reached record highs since July.
On the whole, rare earth mining stocks rose more in July, while magnetic stocks stagnated, such as Yinhe Magnet, Longmagnetism Technology, Earth Bear, Tiantong, Jintian Copper and other magnetic stocks rose less than 10% in July.
From the performance point of view, including Aluminum Corporation of China, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Antai Technology, Hengdian Dongmagneto and other 9 companies issued a semi-annual report performance forecast, and all increased in advance. Among them, Aluminum Corporation of China, Baotou steel shares increased the lower limit of 83 times and 22.8 times respectively, Zhongke Sanhuan, Huahong Science and Technology, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Antai Science and Technology forecast performance doubled.
From the institutional performance forecast, there are 15 companies give this year’s performance forecast, Baotou steel institutions unanimously forecast the performance of this year’s net profit growth of 754%, Aluminum of China unanimously forecast the year-on-year growth of 521%, northern rare earth, Sheng and resources, Antai technology, Huahong science and technology forecast performance growth of more than 100%.
Disclaimer: All data treasure information does not constitute investment advice, the stock market is risky, investment should be cautious.