Upstream price rise downstream pay “lack of core” shows a double-edged sword effect

Commentator of Financial Investment News Liu Ke

For a long time, the capital market’s perception of the “lack of cores” has only stayed on the positive price increase of the upstream supplier of integrated circuit semiconductors, because downstream demand is strong, and the upstream supply side frequently increases prices, which has led to many upstream suppliers. Semiconductor companies make a lot of money.

Counting down the big bull stocks this year, Fuman Electronics, Xinyuanwei, Ming Microelectronics, Yangjie Technology, Shanghai Belling, etc., are all due to the “shortage of cores” leading to a significant increase in performance.

Fuman Electronics, which is mainly engaged in the design, development, packaging, testing and sales of high-performance analog and digital-analog hybrid integrated circuits, is a typical upstream IC design company. Its performance in the first half of the year increased by 1124.56% to 1247.02% compared with the same period of the previous year; Ming Microelectronics, an integrated circuit research and development design, packaging test and sales company, is expected to increase its net profit in the first half of the year by 832.38%-935.98% year-on-year; Yangjie Technology, which specializes in power semiconductor chip and device manufacturing, integrated circuit packaging and testing and other mid-to-high-end fields, is expected to increase Half-year net profit increased by 120%-150% year-on-year; Tongfu Microelectronics, which is a leader in integrated circuit packaging and testing capabilities in the domestic industry, is expected to increase its net profit in the first half of the year by 232%-277% year-on-year; mainly engaged in integrated circuit design, providing analog and digital models Shanghai Belling’s performance of hybrid integrated circuits and system solutions also increased by 335% to 340% over the same period last year.

The market is also positive about the performance growth of these semiconductor upstream companies. The above-mentioned stocks have doubled in the first half of this year, and there are even big bull stocks that have risen several times. Since March this year, the entire semiconductor index has also risen by nearly 40% under the stimulus of the “core shortage” industry, and the net value of semiconductor ETFs and related funds has also risen.

However, the “lack of cores” always needs people to pay, this is not coming, and it is still the “fruit chain” leader. A few days ago, Lingyizhi made an announcement saying that due to the shortage of mobile phone chips, the performance of the first half of this year was expected to drop by 27%-42%. As soon as the news came out, the industry was in an uproar.

You know, as a member of the most authentic A-share “fruit chain”, the net profit in the first quarter of this year increased by more than 6 times year-on-year to reach 463 million yuan. According to its semi-annual report, if the performance compensation for the same period of last year is removed, the stock fair After the impact of the loss of value changes and the related losses of the disposal of subsidiaries, the company was almost “no revenue” in the second quarter, and even suffered a loss.

Leading Yizhi to create performance “explosive thunder”, I believe that the market should rethink the entire semiconductor industry chain, because “lack of core” is a double-edged sword, even the “fruit chain” bigwigs can’t avoid it. Recalling that car manufacturers have frequently warned recently, I believe there will be similar warnings in many downstream industries. After all, there are rumors that Weilai will temporarily suspend production due to “shortage of cores” in the first half of the year. If downstream industries that require chips frequently suspend production and reduce production, how can it not affect performance? Therefore, the market should look at the issue of “core shortage” in two separate ways.

Which field will win in the end? First of all, it should be the upstream of integrated circuit semiconductors. Note that it must be the upstream boom that will be affected by the “core shortage”; secondly, IC design, manufacturing and packaging companies with the entire industry chain can fully enjoy the boom of the industry. .

 

To put it bluntly, the design, manufacturing, packaging and other fields in the upstream of the integrated circuit chip industry, especially design companies with independent property rights in core technologies, that is, companies with their own chip products, will be the biggest beneficiaries. From mobile phones to computers, from airplanes to cars, from the Internet of Things to water and electricity, all companies that need chips will ask for them, and will also rush to ask for them. MCU monolithic and embedded chips with poor technology levels that were not previously optimistic. Will become popular products.

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