“If you vote-the futures price tracking and monitoring system” shows that among the 35 varieties monitored by the system today, the price rose by 16, fell by 8, and fluctuated by 11. Increased varieties accounted for 45.7%, fell 22.9%, and fluctuated 34.2%. On Friday (July 09), the domestic futures market closed mixed. The trend of black series continued to diverge; most non-ferrous metals rose; energy and chemical products picked up; oil and oil in agricultural products rose.
Regarding the black sector, the central bank intensified the reform of the payment market to provide good services for small and micro enterprises; five departments issued detailed rules for the implementation of the fair competition review system; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the “Rare Earth Regulations” will be promulgated as soon as possible; June CPI and PPI both increased slightly Fall back. This week, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 86.00%, an increase of 4.99% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.08%; Mysteel calculated that the imported iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 124.576 million tons, an increase of 2.2274 million tons from the previous month. During the major event (from the end of June to the beginning of July), steel plants in Shanxi, Tangshan and other places blast furnaces centralized simmering furnaces. Blast furnaces resumed production this week, and molten iron output rebounded. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 54.01%, an increase of 9.86% from last week. However, due to the low efficiency of steel mills, the number of overhauls and reductions in steel rolling production lines in various regions has increased, and steel production is still decreasing this week. At the same time, this week’s downstream terminal centralized replenishment, coupled with the sharp rise in the black futures market at the beginning of the week, stimulated a rebound in speculative demand, and the overall demand for steel has improved. However, as steel prices continue to rise for many days, the pressure on downstream terminal funds has increased significantly, and the purchase volume will gradually decrease near the weekend. According to Mysteel’s survey of 237 distributors, the transaction volume of building materials from July 5 to 8 was 262,000 tons, 218,000 tons, 239,000 and 180,000 tons, respectively. On the whole, the supply of steel in the first half of the week was weak and demand was strong, and the fundamental preference supported the strengthening of steel prices. Approaching the weekend, the steel market has entered a weak pattern of supply and demand, and short-term steel prices may fluctuate.
In terms of basic metals, overseas epidemics have repeated, the return of Indonesian nickel pig iron in the market has not been as expected, the price of nickel ore has continued to rise, and the domestic price of ferronickel has risen, which has raised the lower support of nickel. On the other hand, the downstream demand for nickel has performed well, the output of stainless steel has continued to increase, the price of stainless steel has continued to hit new highs since the listing of futures, the linkage support has increased, the demand for new energy batteries has been booming, the price of nickel sulfate has continued to rise, and the supply is in short supply, and nickel continues to be needed. The beans dissolve and nickel sulfate forms a strong support. In addition, domestic spot futures electrolytic nickel inventories continue to be low, which also supports the near-high and low-low on the disk. The rise of domestic prices may help to open the import window. Therefore, pay attention to the high fluctuations after the short-term pull-up, and do not chase the increase in operation. The stability of the breakthrough needs to be observed. From a long-term perspective, in the later stage, we need to look at the short-term tight supply and demand and the expected changes in the improvement of mid-line supply. The difference between the follow-up new production capacity and the expected difference will continue to bring more fluctuations.
In terms of energy and chemistry, although several sets of new urea production capacity have been released this year, the operation of the plant is not stable. The increase in raw material prices has caused the planned new capacity to be put into operation this year. Although Shandong Ruixing, Anhui Haoyuan, and Inner Mongolia Ulan The fertilizer is planned to be put into production, but due to the need for commissioning of new equipment and the continuous delay of the start-up time, the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. From the perspective of cost, domestic coal supply and demand are still tight, and imports are affected by the epidemic. Seaborne supply is tight and freight costs are rising. Domestic urea production will face the risk of raw material supply and rising costs, and cost support still exists. In terms of demand, the peak of national agricultural urea consumption is coming to an end, and the second half of the year is the off-season of agricultural demand. Therefore, the situation of concentrated release of demand may not be reproduced. As for industrial demand, with the recovery of overseas manufacturing, export demand is expected to decline, and overall demand may be weaker than in the first half of the year. In addition, considering the demand gap in India, export demand is still strong, but if the urea export tax is confirmed, export enthusiasm will also be suppressed, and the market outlook needs to focus on policy guidance for exports. The short-term low domestic urea inventory is expected to continue to support the high urea price operation. As agricultural demand enters the seasonal off-season, inventory is expected to gradually accumulate, but the cost support makes it difficult for futures prices to adjust significantly. In the fourth quarter, urea prices are expected to continue to run at a high level under the influence of winter environmental protection production restrictions, gas restrictions and domestic urea short-term storage.
In terms of agricultural products, Sathia Varqa, the co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics in Singapore, said that the ringgit fell to a low of nearly a year, stimulating low buying orders. In addition, palm oil and soybean oil futures on the Dalian market rose, providing further support for Malaysian palm oil. The chairman of the Malay National Unity Agency (UMNO), the largest member of the Malaysian ruling coalition, announced earlier on the 8th that the party withdrew its support for Prime Minister Muhyiddin and asked him to resign as prime minister. The news caused the ringgit to fall. After the concentrated release of short-term benefits (Malay increased production less than expected, India’s tax cuts, and US soybean planting area reports), the additional significant gains are limited. Oils and oils are expected to fall into the bottom support of the shock market. Pay attention to the support of p09 at 7200. Soybean oil basis has stopped falling as expected, and the recent trend may be slightly stronger than palm oil. Rapeseed Oil 09 is subject to short-term spot weakness, and the digestion of spot pressure may still take time.
The Mandarin Commodity Index opened at 190.02, the highest was 191.77, the lowest was 189.58, and it closed at 191.60. The K line closes the Zhongyang line with the upper and lower shadow lines. Open interest rebounded slightly, and trading volume continued to fall. The K line oscillates around 191.00 in the short-term, but the moving average system is in a bullish trend. Variety operations suggest that multiple orders hold new orders and wait and see in the early stage. The specific basis is such as investment-futures price tracking and monitoring system for analysis.
1. If you invest-futures price tracking system: based on trend-based quantitative trading models and analysis of basic commodity supply and demand factors, combined with research on related varieties, financial markets and institutional trends, it tracks and monitors the price trends and potential of various commodities on the day Changing trends provide traders with decision-making reference.
2. This system uses daily price changes and the closing price of the day as the monitoring base, and the research period is (3-15 trading days), which is suitable for short- and medium-term swing traders. As this system has a certain lag in the after-hours release, it is only for reference for short-term traders.
3. This system is not used as a basis for transactions. Please grasp the timing of transactions based on changes in the market and strictly abide by the principles of capital management and risk control measures.
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information