Summer is here, and now is the season to drink beer, but in the secondary market, liquor stocks are still highly resilient, and many individual stocks have reached new highs before the Spring Festival. Gao Zhi believes that this is related to the recent continuous launch of seller reports by brokers.
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A brokerage reported that: Sub-high-end liquor will welcome a new round of “bull market.” They believe that the industry boom is the basis of the sub-high-end “bull market.” In the past ten years, the liquor industry has experienced three obvious upward periods, namely 2010-2011, 2016-2017, and the second half of 2020 to the present. Two of them are strong economic recovery after strong stimulus, and one is economic recovery after overcapacity reduction. Boost development. Starting from the second half of 2020, with the strong economic recovery following strong stimulus, the liquor industry has entered a new round of development cycle. At present, the scale of the high-end market of 300-600 yuan is 50-60 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the high-end market above 1,000 yuan and the low-end market below 200 yuan. In the past five years, the sub-high-end price belt has expanded significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of about 20% in the industry, of which the compound annual growth rate of the industry from 2015 to 2017 is nearly 40%, and the compound growth rate of the industry from 2018 to 2020 is about 10%. As the industry booms , We predict that the second-high-end price zone will grow by more than 35% year-on-year in 2021, and will maintain a high-speed expansion cycle of about 2 years. As the “growth type” track of the liquor industry, the sub-high-end competition pattern has not yet solidified. At present, it is showing a situation of multiple strengths. Among them, Jiannanchun and Xijiu have become tens of billions of single products. Yanghe Dream Blue and Qinghua Fenjiu Camp Revenue is between 4 billion and 6.5 billion. In addition, Guotai, Guoyuan, Shuijing, Shede and other brands also have revenues of more than 2 billion. Looking forward to the next five years, the industry will expand to a scale of 100 billion, and it is still expected to run out of 2-3 billion single products. We are optimistic about the expansion trend of the sub-high-end industry and the nationalization process of leading enterprises.
“Actually, if you take a closer look at the stock price of liquor, you will find that Kweichow Moutai has not risen much in the past two days, but the second-tier liquor stocks have risen sharply. Kweichow Moutai is the Dinghai Shenzhen in the liquor stocks. It is responsible for opening the price ceiling of other liquors. Valuation is the anchor of the entire sector. As long as it does not fall back, other liquor stocks will slowly keep up with its rise.” Gao Zhi said. As the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, the value of asset allocation including liquor has become prominent. Recently, high-end liquor brands such as Jiuguijiu and Gujinggong have raised prices for their products.
“The price of Kweichow Moutai is too high. Many people can’t afford to drink it. They can only choose sub-end liquor. This may be the reason why sales of Jiuguijiu, Gujinggong, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shuijingfang, and Yanghe have not decreased.” Huafeng said. The valuations of liquor companies are mostly at relatively high historical levels. If the valuation continues to increase, it will overdraft future performance. The core foothold of preventing risks and looking for opportunities is actually whether you can find truly outstanding companies.
“Huafeng, would you choose a wine company to make the price difference today?” Jiaojiao cares most about this.
“Yes. I have already bought a liquor stock that opened a cross star today.” The resource stocks selected by Huafeng yesterday bucked the trend and surged 2.2% this morning.
“Okay, let’s buy together.” Gao Zhi felt that the stock introduced by Huafeng is in good shape and still has upside potential.