Non ferrous metal “Dancing” in stock market

Recently, China domestic and foreign capital markets ushered in a strong trend. On the one hand, the trend of stock and futures markets is linked; on the other hand, the price trend of nonferrous metals deviates from that of gold, crude oil and other commodities and goes up against the current. However, the price of non-ferrous metals is rising, but also reveals the flavor of “disharmony”. By the end of December 1, the reporter of Securities Daily sorted out the institutional position data and found that the long short and two-way positions of non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, which seemed to imply that funds were quietly leaving the market.
Many analysts told the Securities Daily that the nonferrous metal plate and nonferrous metal futures in a shares have risen simultaneously recently, more because of the macro support. However, based on the poor expectations of loose monetary policy, it is difficult for non-ferrous metals to continue to rise. At the same time, most of the nonferrous metals are in the de stocking stage, the short-term supply and demand pattern is not clear, and some metal prices have peaked after rising.
Stock period linkage non-ferrous metal rising
Recently, nonferrous metal plate has continuously created a new stage high. According to the data of Dongfang fortune choice, the Shenwan secondary steel index has always maintained a strong shock since late November. The index has rebounded continuously from 2290 points, and has reached new highs of 2350 points and 2400 points. In terms of individual stocks, as of December 1, 26 steel stocks headed by St Fuzhou steel and CITIC special steel closed on the red plate.
As for nonferrous metal futures, as of December 1, most fund metals remained strong, with Shanghai copper (57200, – 120.00, – 0.21%), Shanghai aluminum (16835, 200.00, 1.20%), iron ore (934, 31.00, 3.43%), stone, hot coil (4267, 98.00, 2.35%) and other futures varieties increased to varying degrees. Since November, Shanghai copper has shown a trend of unilateral increase, and has successively reached a stage high of 52000 yuan / ton, 53850 yuan / ton and 57980 yuan / ton.
On the one hand, the stock futures linkage, on the other hand, nonferrous metals deviated from the trend of gold and crude oil. Since October, the price of gold has been declining, crude oil has been weak, and other leading commodities have failed to show a strong pattern. Only nonferrous metal prices have been outstanding. Many analysts pointed out that the joint rise of the non-ferrous metal stock market and futures market was mainly due to the weakening of macro uncertainty factors, which led to the rise of market trading sentiment.
The Milky Way futures special purchases for the Spring Festival, Wang Yingying, told the Securities Daily that the results of the US presidential election were the result of the lifting of the biggest risk in the global market, the recovery of market risk preference, and the continued easing of investors’ expectations for the money market next year. Economic recovery is expected to boost demand for non-ferrous metals and promote non-ferrous metal prices to rise to a bubble stage.
Among the non-ferrous metal varieties, Wang Yingying is optimistic about the performance of Shanghai aluminum. She believes that aluminum in the early stage of environmental protection and production restrictions continue to speculation, prices continue to rise, alumina prices have recently stopped falling and stabilized. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional off-season, but the performance of Shanghai aluminum is stronger than expected. In addition, the spot market will probably maintain the de inventory status; under the logic of low inventory and high demand, Shanghai aluminum may continue to be a strong market.
For the trend of Shanghai zinc, Wang Yingying believes that the low season in the fourth quarter continues to deepen, and the weak trend of infrastructure consumption slightly converges. At the same time, the import of zinc continued to close, supporting domestic inventories. It is expected that in the pattern of shrinking supply, marginal repair at the demand side may give some support to zinc price (21160, – 250.00, – 1.17%).
Cao Yang, a senior non-ferrous metals analyst at the Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that at present, the inventory level of most non-ferrous metals is at a low level in the same period of history, the ratio of Treasury to sales is low, and there is a further downward trend, and the supply stage is tight, which forms a strong support for the price of non-ferrous metals. “The investment logic of the stock exchange linkage lies in the strong support of the fundamentals and the macro level, attracting a large influx of funds. Although most of the non-ferrous metal prices are relatively high in history, and even there is a certain trend of bubble, it is difficult to find the fundamentals of the bubble in the short term. The performance of the market outlook is still worth looking forward to.”
Obvious signs of two-way reduction of institutional positions
Although the overall performance of non-ferrous metals is strong, industry insiders are optimistic about the future of nonferrous metals, but institutional positions have deviated from the trend. After combing the relevant data, the reporter of Securities Daily found that the two-way positions of some non-ferrous metal futures institutions were declining synchronously, indicating that the funds were leaving the market.
According to the data of Shanghai copper futures trading, the position increased by 53830000 after the closing of Shanghai Stock Exchange. However, the long position decreased by 6238 hands to 84300 hands, while the short position also decreased by 5926 hands to 88600 hands. From the perspective of reducing positions, Yong’an futures, chaos Tiancheng and Haitong futures are the most active in long positions reduction; Yide futures, Hua’an futures and CCB futures are the most obvious in short positions.
Shanghai aluminum also showed signs of double position reduction. By the end of December 1, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 2101 was 369900, an increase of 31500 over the previous day. However, the long position was reduced by 2691 hands to 79400 hands; the short position also reduced by 1781 hands to 101900 hands; at present, the short position was significantly higher than the long position. In terms of reducing positions, Guotai Junan, Haitong futures and Shanghai mid-term are the most obvious in the long position reduction; the state investment Anxin and Jinrui are the most obvious

Leave a Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

©Spark Global Limited Financial information & The content of the website comes from the Internet, and any infringement links will be deleted.