volatility reached a high point, most of them are on the way?

Fx168 financial news (North America) on Tuesday (December 1), bitcoin failed to continue its rally after breaking the record high the previous day, and failed in an attempt to break through the important threshold of $20000. Today, bitcoin fell 1% to around $19000.

(source: coindesk)
(source: coindesk)
Gary Cohn, a former head of economics for president trump, said the token “lacks some of the basic integrity of a real market” and could eventually fail. “Part of the integrity of the system is knowing who owns it, who owns it, and why it was transferred,” said Cohen, a former chief executive of Goldman Sachs. “Today’s bitcoin system has no transparency. So a lot of people are asking, why do we need a system without audit records? ” Cohen said bitcoin’s “integrity” flaws could lead to failure.
There is no doubt that there are various reasons for bitcoin to hit an all-time high, from PayPal’s recent entry into the field to the massive outflow of funds after the okex cryptocurrency Exchange suspended redemptions for five months, leading to collective market volatility. But “institutional adoption” has become one of the hottest buzzwords among bitcoin bulls and marketers. Another driving force is the desire to hedge against inflation. “With so much liquidity in the system, the original bitcoin investment case is being proven.” Said rich Rosenblum, who deals with cryptocurrency company GSR.
In his weekly blog, Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of Arca funds, wrote that due to regulatory considerations, some large investors may take advantage of futures on the U.S. Commodity Exchange or publicly traded investment vehicles in traditional stock markets to gain exposure to bitcoin – rather than directly into the digital asset market. He provided a chart showing that the key closing times on the US Open Market in the past week coincided with the big swings in the cryptocurrency market, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. “These institutions are all here, but they’re on local buses, and the rest of us are called express trains,” Dorman wrote
On Tuesday, blockfi, a New York based encryption company known for its lending business, interest bearing encryption products and trading platform, announced that it would launch its long-awaited bitcoin reward credit card in the first quarter of next year.
Zach prince, the company’s chief executive, said the card would be the first of its kind in an industry where bitcoin reward debit cards are saturated. The company will work with visa, where customers can get a 1.5% return on the goods they buy.
Cryptocurrency analysts expect bullish traders’ next target may be $20000, but if large potential holders choose to take profits at that level, the market may be hard to break through.
Denis Vinokourov, head of research at bequant, a leading digital asset broker, said: “the resistance to breaking $20000 may be more psychological.” “Once we can finally cross that threshold, there is support for the rebound, which makes sense.”
Marcus Swanepoel, chief executive of luno, the London crypto exchange, said bitcoin could enter the $20000 to $25000 range before a big sell-off. Then, “we may see a 20% to 30% correction. It’s a predictable model, and there’s no reason not to expect it. ”
Bitcoin’s one month implied volatility has risen to a 6.5-month high, reflecting rising expectations of price volatility in the next four weeks. According to skew, a data provider, affected by the demand for call and put options, the index has risen to 89%, the highest level since May 18, and reached a bottom of nearly 44% in September. While the implied volatility doubled, bitcoin also rose from $10000 to $19920, which seems to be caused by relatively high demand for call options (call bets). This is evident from the record lows of the 1-year, 3-year and 6-month put call skew, which measures the cost of a put versus a call. The options market looks ready to continue to rise.
According to cryptoquant, a data source, some analysts said bitcoin may be on the verge of a healthy correction, as the amount of money flowing into the exchange has exceeded the outflow since the holiday sale. Ju ki Yong, chief executive of cryptoquant, said: “Indicators on this chain may indicate a short-term bear market trend, pushing bitcoin back to around $16000.”

(bitcoin's implied volatility rose to a multi month high, source: skew)

 

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